15th April 2016

The real cost of EU membership to Britain: Sovereignty and billions of pounds

Sovereignty

Like other citizens I have received by post  the leaflet or should I say pamphlet “Why the Government believes that voting to remain in the European Union is the best decision for the UK.”   Bearing in mind that the government can believe whatever it wants to believe and if the electorate do not agree with the government actions they can vote them out of office at the next general election what about EU law?

 
 Laws that are made by the British government can be repealed by a new government or amended but we are stuck with EU laws, there appears to be very little we can do to amend or reject laws that come from the EU. Consider this quote from a BBC article from Michael Gove the Conservative Justice Minister:  Michael Gove, who also wants to leave the EU, explained at the weekend what he saw as the consequences of EU membership.

“Michael Gove argues the EU limits the UK government's ability to control its own affairs

He said the UK government "cannot remove or reduce VAT, cannot support a steel plant through troubled times, cannot build the houses we need where they're needed and cannot deport all the individuals who shouldn't be in this country".  This loss of sovereignty has not been mentioned in the pamphlet distributed to all the people of the UK.   http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35630757

This loss of sovereignty can be expressed by the popular expression “We want our country back”  This is serious. It could bring down a government.

Economic cost

This document provides government information not available to the pamphlet mentioned above even via the source information:  http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN06091#fullreport

“Various studies have attempted to quantify the benefit or cost to the UK of its membership of the EU. This is a very difficult exercise and depends on a wide range of assumptions. Estimates vary significantly. For example, a 2005 study by the Institute for Economic Affairs found a cost of between 3% and 4% of GDP while a 2013 study by the CBI found a net benefit of between 4% and 5% of GDP. A 2015 study by Open Europe found that the cost of the 100 most burdensome EU regulations was £33.3 billion a year.” I assume this excludes £55 million a day contributions

Since our GDP 2014 latest available is USD 2,988,893,283,565 almost 3 trillion USD if we apply a rate of 3 percent of GDP the cost of membership of the EU is 89 billion USD or nearly 64 billion GBP. Even if the cost of membership of the EU was only 1 percent of GDP the cost would be £21 billion pounds.  Never mind £55 million a day! We are talking billions of pounds. 

Can you explain why this sacrifice of funds and sovereignty is really desirable?

 Thank you

Yours sincerely              A. Citizen

 

A reply to the above letter is published below

lO DOWNING STREET

LONDON SW1A 2AA

www.gov.uk/Number10

From The Direct Communications Unit                                                               6 May 2016

Dear Citizen

I am writing on behalf of the Prime Minister to thank you for your recent letter.

Mr Cameron is grateful for the time and trouble you have taken to get in touch.

Because the Foreign and Commonwealth Office is best placed to respond to the matters you raise, he has asked me to forward your letter to the Department so that they may reply to your concerns directly.

Yours sincerely

A reply from the Foreign & Commonwealth Office is published below

Correspondence Officer
Foreign & Commonwealth Office

Europe Directorate 

Foreign & Commonwealth Office,
King Charles Street,
London,
SW1A2AH

-   "HM Treasury analysis: the immediate economic impact of leaving the EU", published on 23rd May. [Cm 9250]

Both papers can be found on gov.uk.

Yours sincerely,

A reply to the above letter from Foreign & Commonwealth Office is published below

Sovereignty

"When European leaders declare it “legally binding”, they mean it’s legally binding under international law, not EU law.

Under international law, it's “irreversible” in the sense that the UK government would have to consent before it could be amended or repealed.

The Decision will not as such change EU law, although other elements of the overall deal would: the planned legislation on free movement issues, and the promised decision on eurozone issues.

Indeed, the Decision couldn’t change EU law without following the formal procedures to do so. It explicitly recognises that it can’t have that effect.

This part of the deal can’t be directly enforced in the EU court, but can’t be attacked there either

The Decision can include legal obligations for EU members as a matter of international law, as long as this doesn’t conflict with EU law.

In the event of any conflict, the primacy of EU law means that it takes precedence over the Decision.

The distinction between the Decision and EU law does mean that there is a gap in the Decision’s enforceability.

A dispute about enforcing it can be brought back before the European Council. But there is nothing on bringing a dispute before the EU court, which could then impose fines.

So despite the binding nature of the Decision, there isn't a clear mechanism for making it stick.

On the other hand, because the Decision isn’t part of EU law, another country couldn’t directly challenge it before the EU court either.

Other parts of the deal changing EU law itself could be legally challenged or blocked by politicians"

Full Fact site

Economic cost

The reply from the Foreign & Commonwealth Office doe not mention my calculations which are based on the quantities referred to in the Summary to the government briefing paper. That document has been updated a few days ago (13th Jun 2016) In the updated paper mention of possible rates of cost of membership to the EU, other than just our subscription has been removed.  A copy of the original paper renamed can be downloaded: eu uk trade SN06091

From the original paper: "

Various studies have attempted to quantify the benefit or cost to the UK of its membership of the EU. This is a very difficult exercise and depends on a wide range of assumptions. Estimates vary significantly. For example, a 2005 study by the Institute for Economic Affairs found a cost of between 3% and 4% of GDP while a 2013 study by the CBI found a net benefit of between 4% and 5% of GDP. A 2015 study by Open Europe found that the cost of the 100 most burdensome EU regulations was £33.3 billion a year."  At least these various estimations of the cost or benefit of being a member of the EU can be entered into a calculator whereas the Treasury analysis 201 page document doesn not make any attempt to consider leaving in positive terms. This is unrealistic. In fact what George Osborne has done is instruct the Treasury to remove all reference to the estimations made by the Institute of Economic Affairs, a study made by the CBI and Open Europe

 

Assuming that we have some figures to go on the next problem is calculating even simple percentages when dealing with numbers that are in the trillions.. An Excel spreadsheet has been created to manage this problem. Percentage Calculator

 

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